THE 18TH ANNUAL HERZLIYA CONFERENCE

70 Years of Independence: Israe​l at Critical Junctures

Conference Summary | Ariel Rodal-Spieler

This year’s Herzliya Conference took place in what may well have been the most eventful week of the year for Israel.

The opening night of the conference coincided with President Donald J. Trump’s announcement that the United States would be pulling out of the so-called “Iran Deal,” and the days that followed saw unprecedented military confrontations between Iran and Israel on the Syrian border. Then, immediately after the conference, the U.S. officially moved its embassy to Jerusalem. All these events gave the conference’s participants even more material than usual for dynamic and salient discussions.

Prof. Uriel Reichman, president and founder of IDC Herzliya, opened and closed the conference with a message of unity: “There must be an end to incitement to the right or to the left, and rather a focus on problem-solving,” he said. He called for a return to the original vision of Zionism, that of Herzl and of Israel’s Declaration of Independence. “The Zionist idea is about the Jews as a people and not only as a religion, the return to Zion, and having sovereignty in Israel. But it is also about liberal, democratic values.”

The Herzliya Conference, the flagship event of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at IDC Herzliya, is chaired by Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead, executive director of IPS. Widely considered Israel’s foremost global policy gathering, the Herzliya Conference brings together senior Israeli and international participants from government, business and academia to address pressing national, regional and global issues.

Addressing the conference, Gilead said, “Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran deal is a historic one. This deal is one of the worst in history. But there needs to be an alternative. I fear that the Iranians will say that they’ll continue with the deal and work with China, Russia, and the Western European countries, thus isolating the U.S. And Iran will continue building up their nuclear capability. The Iranian threat is not propaganda – they mean it. They’ve set for themselves the goal of destroying us by 2048.”

On the morning following the thwarted Iranian missile attack on Israel, Gilead hosted Avigdor Liberman, Israel’s minister of defense, for a conversation in a special plenary session. Liberman told the audience that the Iranian missiles never reached their destination – most of them fell in Syrian territory, while the others were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome system. The Israeli Air Force launched a large-scale operation against Iranian targets in Syria in retaliation. Liberman said, “We have hit almost the entire Iranian infrastructure in Syria. They must remember: If it rains here [in Israel], there’ll be a storm over there.” He added, “While we have no interest in escalation, we must be prepared for any scenario. We are facing a new reality in which Iran is threatening Israel and its sovereignty.”

Education Minister Naftali Bennett said, “The ayatollahs’ regime is on borrowed time and will inevitably collapse. If Iran continues on its current path, it will find that Syria has become its own Vietnam.”

Panel discussions on the Israel–Iran confrontation, global powers, and U.S. policy in the Middle East revealed varied opinions on recent developments and their possible repercussions.

Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and former deputy national security advisor to George W. Bush, said, “I don’t think the Iranians will agree to the clauses Trump wants in renegotiating the deal – for example, addressing ballistic missiles and the sunset clauses…Though we have failed completely to predict regime change anywhere and anytime, the I​ranian population does hate the regime.”

Sima Shine, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, said, “I don’t believe in regime change from the outside. But I don’t think this regime is sustainable – I think it’s doomed in the future because of the gap between it and the population. I don’t know if it will be gradual or if it will be a revolution, but I don’t think it will continue the way it is for another 40 years.”

President Trump’s unpredictability has won him some successes, said Mary Beth Long, former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs. “Trump broke the cycle with North Korea,” she said. “Previous administrations tried over and over again to make concessions and bring them to the table, and nothing worked.”

Amb. Dennis Ross, former special assistant to Barack Obama and White House coordinator for the Middle East, said, “With his withdrawal from the deal, Trump may have also been trying to signal to Kim Jong-un that ‘This is what will happen if you don’t do things on my terms.’”

A different opinion was voiced by Dr. Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND Corporation. “This is not going to be a U.S.-led world order for much longer,” she said. “I think Trump is accelerating the decline of the U.S., as we’re becoming increasingly isolated. Just because he’s fulfilling his campaign promises, it doesn’t make him any less dangerous. Before we celebrate the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, let’s wait and see.”

Against the backdrop of the U.S. embassy move, threats made as the Palestinian Naqba Day approached, and ongoing riots on the Gaza border, various experts shared their views on the Israeli-Palestinian impasse and alternatives to the two-state solution.

“There has been zero engagement between Palestinians and the U.S. since the embassy announcement. They’re looking elsewhere for a broker,” said Ilan Goldenberg, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. “For the next few years I don’t see any agreement taking place.”

Mayor of Jerusalem Nir Barkat spoke about the U.S. embassy’s historic move to Jerusalem, saying, “I took it upon myself to increase the economy of the city for all of its citizens. In 1967 we united Jerusalem, and now we are connecting it. My goal is to bring the level of satisfaction of Jerusalem’s Arabs to that of other Arabs in Israel, and in doing this end the discussion over the dividing of Jerusalem. I think this is an attainable goal.”

In addition to addressing traditional strategic threats, the Herzliya Conference also examines Israel’s national resilience from social, economic, and cultural perspectives. As Gilead put it, “I see national resilience as a house: you can have four walls that are very strong – that is, the Mossad, the IDF, and so on, but if you have termites eating the floor – the socio-economic issues – then the house will collapse anyway.”

Prof. Rafi Melnick, former provost of IDC, said that while almost all of Israel’s current economic indicators are good, its levels of poverty and inequality are still among the highest of the OECD countries. “Macroeconomic policies provide stability and resilience, but they are not enough to close the gap with other western countries,” he said. “Without improvements in productivity, the gaps in the standard of living will remain.”

Eli Groner, director-general of the Prime Minister’s Office, blamed the high cost of living in Israel on over-regulation, which he said “negatively affects every type of economic marker. Smart regulation, however, leads to growth.” Groner presented the Prime Minister’s Office’s four-pronged strategic plan to tackle over-regulation – a plan that, he said, has already been praised by the international community.

One particularly charged session concerned the approximately 40,000 African refugees seeking asylum in Israel. Joey Low, founder of Israel at Heart and Star Farm Ventures, said that his desire to help the asylum seekers stemmed from his Jewish values. “It’s so clear to me as a Jew that we need to help people who are facing genocide,” he said. “One of the ways to be strong is to have people support you, and that should include Jews from around the world. It’s difficult to do that if Israel has policies that could be perceived as racist. The thought of Israel deporting 30,000–40,000 Africans is very painful for American Jews. These refugees need to be given rights that will allow them to live in dignity.”

Eli Yishai, former minister of the interior, said that in his opinion, Israel, with all the problems it already has, shouldn’t have to deal with this as well. “I would like to train these people and do whatever we can to help them return home to a good life and advance the economy in their home countries,” he said. “I have no less sympathy for these people than anyone else on the panel, but I’m thinking of the future of the Jewish state.”

Irina Nevzlin, chair of the board of directors of the Museum of the Jewish People at Beit Hatfutsot, opened a session on Israel and world Jewry, held in cooperation with the Andrew H. and Ann R. Tisch Center for Jewish Dialogue at the museum. In her address, Nevzlin spoke of the need to teach the young generation about Jewish identity and roots, and to instill a sense of pride in Jewish heritage from a young age in order to create a “robust sense of belonging.” “We are all one people,” she said. “If there is any real strategic threat to the State of Israel and the Jewish people, it is threat of us not being united.”

Presenting some painful statistics, Dr. Anita Friedman, president of the Koret Foundation, said, “We asked the following research question to American Jews: If the State of Israel ceased to exist, would you consider it a personal tragedy? Of those respondents over the age of 55, 75% said yes. Of the under 35s, only 30% said yes. Members of the younger generation of American Jews aren’t necessarily all critical of Israel; they just don’t care. We have to think about how to inspire young people to want to cast their lot with the Jewish people.”

While Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, president of the Conference of European Rabbis, pointed to the growing political divide between Diaspora Jewry and the Israeli government, Rabbi Dr. Ari Berman, president of Yeshiva University, said, “Israel is not the problem; it’s the solution. There’s nothing that inspires young American Jews like Israel. When they have a chance to experience Israel, it can be transformative. There’s something magical about this country and its people – Israelis need to understand that and use it for the greater good.”

Amb. Ron Prosor, head of IDC’s Abba Eban Institute for International Diplomacy, said, “It’s a symbiotic relationship. We need to enrich the dialogue. The current dialogue on anti-Semitism and so on doesn’t speak to the young generation, which is why they don’t support us. We have to engage with them in a language that speaks to them. Israeli society needs to reach out to youngsters about what connects them personally – for example, tikkun olam.”

“There is no sense of urgency on this issue amongst Israelis,” said MK Dr. Nachman Shai, chair of the Knesset Lobby for Strengthening the Jewish People. “They take Diaspora Jewry for granted. I’m not sure that in a future war U.S. Jewry will stand by us as they have in the past. Right now it’s still viable, but very soon we will lose them, and this is a real strategic challenge for Israel.”

Foreign dignitaries such as Dr. Antonio Missiroli, assistant secretary-general of NATO, Amb. Hazem Khairat, Egypt’s ambassador to Israel, Ronnie C. Chan, thought leader and chairman of Hang Lung Properties Ltd., and Brett McGurk, special U.S. presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, made keynote addresses throughout the conference. McGurk said that the U.S. was “committed to making sure that the vacuum left by ISIL is not filled by other extremist groups, including fighters backed by Iran, and we will make it clear to Russia that this must be the case in any final settlement.”

Leaders of the major Israeli political parties – including Yair Lapid, chairman of the Yesh Atid party, Avi Gabbay, chairman of the Labor Party, Tamar Zandberg, chairwoman of Meretz, and Orly Levy-Abekasis – also addressed the attendees.

In his traditional keynote address closing the Herzliya Conference, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said, “Israel is thriving. The economy is in an excellent state. We are strong in security, and Israel’s position in the world is growing stronger. There have been breakthroughs in our relations with the Arab states. But there are still clouds looming, and we are in a period whose end we can’t predict. We must show leadership, responsibility, and more creativity in coming up with solutions.”

Before President Rivlin’s address, Jonathan Davis, IDC’s vice president for External Relations, head of the Raphael Recanati International School, and moderator of the conference’s closing session, praised the organized and efficient manner in which Gilead prepared and conducted the Herzliya Conference. “The events of this week added even more depth to the conference’s already rich agenda,” he said.

Speaker of the Knesset Yuli (Yoel) Edelstein perhaps best summed up the Herzliya Conference’s overarching perception of Israeli national resilience in his keynote address. “What do I tell people when they ask me the secret to Israel’s success?” he said. “I say that despite the wars we have had to face, we never let ourselves focus only on security. We always worked on other things – culture, science, economy, education – at the same time.”