The Potential for Escalation with the Palestinians on the Eve of Ramadan
By Dr. Michael Milshtein | January, 2023
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| Photo: Israel Police | CC By-SA 3.0 |
Jerusalem is the focus of a soaring wave of escalation in the Palestinian system in recent weeks. The tension in Jerusalem affects the other foci in the Palestinian system, while also being affected by them, particularly the ongoing conflict in northern Samaria.
In the past, it was Temple Mount that served as the center of friction, particularly when large numbers of Jews would visit the compound; these days, however, the escalation is fueled by a wave of terror perpetrated by East Jerusalem Palestinians (most of whom are from the younger generation), as well as aggravating clashes between police forces and the local Arab population due to an increased effort of law enforcement.
The severe attacks carried out in Jerusalem in recent weeks, such as the fatal incidents in the Neighborhoods of Neve Yaakov and Ramot, are yet another reminder of East Jerusalem being the “soft underbelly” from a security perspective. Its Palestinian residents, who carry Israeli IDs despite not being full-fledged citizens, move freely between the West Bank and Israeli territory, and are as affected as all other Palestinians by the political and security turmoil of recent months, while being capable of carrying out terrorist attacks with relative ease, especially in Jerusalem.
The recent attacks have also demonstrated the challenge posed by the younger East Jerusalem residents, who, much like all members of the Palestinian Z Generation, feel a dual alienation – both toward Israel and toward the Palestinian leadership – while being exposed to unruly incitement on social media. The disconnection among the young Palestinian residents of Jerusalem is particularly poignant for several reasons: the basic tension that governs their existence between Israeli residency and Palestinian identity; harsh socio-economic conditions (61% of East Jerusalem residents are below the poverty line); daily friction with Jewish society and government agencies that deepens the feelings of frustration and animosity many of the local Arabs harbor; as well as the common perception among young East Jerusalem residents whereby they have been assigned with the task of protecting Islam’s holy sites.
The unrest in the Jerusalem area has been aggravated in recent weeks by the broad operation for the demolition of illegal construction that is being carried out in East Jerusalem neighborhoods, and accompanied by friction between the Arab population and police forces. The operation has led to riots, including a declared civil uprising, which consisted of a general strike and blocking of main roads.
This activity also led to friction within the defense establishment in view of the gaps that emerged between the National Security Minister’s demands to promote Operation "Defense Wall II” in East Jerusalem, and the top police echelon’s struggles to put these directives into practice - inter alia in the absence of clearly set targets, enemies, and goals - as well as the ongoing concern that the current effort is fueling the flames as Ramadan approaches.
Should the friction and attacks in Jerusalem persist, we may witness, as soon as within the immediate timeframe, the creation of a smaller Intifada model across Jerusalem. This development could project negatively onto other hubs within the Palestinian system, as well as on Arab Israeli society. It could emerge even in the absence of provocation on Temple Mount - the “detonator” that often fueled the combustible atmosphere in the other arenas. A sharp rise in escalation within Jerusalem could lead to soaring terror in the West Bank, as well as within Israeli borders, and even set the Gaza Strip ablaze, leading to rocket firing and “incendiary balloons”, as well as demonstrations along the border fence, while Hamas turns a blind eye (as has already happened in recent weeks following severe security clashes in northern Samaria).
In order to maintain quiet in the Jerusalem area as Ramadan draws near, as well as during it, steps must be promoted on the following three levels:
- On the tactical level - Increased intelligence and operational efforts are required to locate “lone wolf” terrorists planning to carry out attacks, alongside the thwarting of squads, whether unaffiliated or institutionalized (especially Hamas-affiliated), and heightened activity aimed at seizing weapons in East Jerusalem. The possibility of suspending or limiting the demolition of illegal construction in East Jerusalem at this stage may need to be considered, as this effort is causing tremendous unrest among the local Palestinian population.
- On the infrastructural level - The steps being taken, primarily by the City of Jerusalem, to improve the civil services offered to East Jerusalem residents should be accelerated, particularly in areas such as welfare, civil infrastructures, education, and youth (according to some assessments, almost one third of the 120,000 students attending the Arab education system in Jerusalem are “unknown”, meaning no clear information on their school attendance exists, and, in addition to that, there is a shortage of some 3,500 classrooms in East Jerusalem).
- On the strategic level - It is crucial to begin the kind of in-depth discussions that have not been held in many years on the exact status of East Jerusalem residents – some 370,000 people constituting 40% of the city’s residents compared to just 26% in 1980. Approximately one third of them live on the Palestinian side of the security fence – mostly in the Shu`afat Refugee Camp – an area that has become a governmental void generating numerous negative phenomena, where the presence of law enforcement (the City of Jerusalem, Israel Police or IDF) is relatively limited.
- In the background, the employment of an educated and cautious policy in the context of Temple Mount must continue, for this compound may serve as an arena for friction, particularly during Ramadan and when the holy Muslim month will coincide with Passover, which could project onto the entire Palestinian system, and beyond. In this context it is advisable to avoid any significant increase in the number of Jews visiting Temple Mount during Ramadan, or any symbolic steps that could be interpreted as altering the status quo.
Like the policy employed vis-à-vis other state security challenges recently, and as long as Israel is wallowing in a deep and acute internal crisis, stabilizing the current state of affairs in Jerusalem is preferable to any steps taken that could lead to dramatic changes. At the same time, steps of primarily symbolic dimensions that enlarge the scope of threats, increase tension levels, and hinder decision-makers’ ability to engage in long-term strategic dialogue, not to mention actually take decisions in such a vein as required, particularly with regard to the issue of the Palestinians, should be reduced.
Authored by Dr. Michael Milshtein, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
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