Israel and the West Bank: An Accelerated Economic Infrastructural Merge and Pursuit of Shift in Demographics Bring Closer to a One-State Reality
By Dr. Michael Milshtein | September, 2023
Since entering office, the current Israeli government’s policy on the Palestinian issue has been ambiguous and contradictory. As such, two competing agendas within the government are creating notable tension. On the one hand, there is the strategy supposedly followed by the Likud Party, which recognizes that the Palestinian Authority (PA) is essential and should be strengthened, yet opposes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
On the other is the Religious Zionism’s approach, represented primarily by ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, which reflects the desire for radical shifts in the current state of affairs, particularly weakening the PA until it disappears altogether, while significantly expanding the Jewish communities in the West Bank as a step on the road to gradual claiming of Israeli sovereignty over this area.
The two approaches have collided several times, particularly when the government decided to provide some form of support to the PA, or directed the evacuation of illegal outposts. Ostensibly, the dominant policy is the one to which Prime Minister Netanyahu adheres, representing the desire to preserve the current state of affairs; however, in practice, the Religious Zionism’s approach has greater impact on the ground, effectively changing reality in the West Bank, and “fusing” the area with Israel.
Several steps taken in this context are prominent: 12,000 residential units were approved in the West Bank (as opposed to 4,000 in 2022); construction plan approval in this area has been shortened by Smotrich in his capacity as a minister in the Ministry of Defense responsible for part of the Civil Administration in the West Bank; 10 outposts were legitimized and are due to become full-fledged communities; strategic plans for increasing the number of Jewish residents in the area from the current half a million to one million are being promoted, as well as the reinforcement of Israeli presence in area C (63% of the West Bank), and enforcing of laws pertaining to illegal construction and the demolition thereof on Palestinian construction in areas A and B as well.
Smotrich’s statements in recent years reflect his long-term goals: Erasing the "Green Line" by merging the West Bank and Israel from a civil-infrastructural perspective, and equating the administrative and legal status of Jewish communities in the West Bank with their counterparts across the "Green Line", all the while publicly questioning the “necessity” of the PA (which he views as a “bitter enemy”), as well as the very existence of a Palestinian people, and making announcements such as “wiping out the village of Hawara”, for which Israel is subsequently poignantly criticized.
Smotrich’s worldview is outlined in his Tipping of the Scales – an article he published in 2017 that offers the Palestinians self-management devoid of political or national characteristics, such as borders, as well as residency – a status similar to that of Arabs living in East Jerusalem since 1967 (they are residents but nit citizens of Israel) – with a future option of becoming citizens if they pledge their allegiance to the State of Israel, and agree to serve in the IDF.
Smotrich explained in the article that limiting an entire collective’s civil democratic rights, first among which is the right to vote, does not constitute Apartheid, and will not impede Israel’s democratic nature. Moreover, he belittles ideas such as an autonomy or the “Minus-State” notion previously proposed by Netanyahu, arguing that these are mere euphemisms representing leftist views, and claiming that countries around the world (which is “for the most part a religious world”) are not interested in the Palestinian problem but in their own domestic issues, and would accept the policy he was suggesting as long as it is accompanied by effective public diplomacy.[1]
At the same time, Smotrich believed that Israel should adhere to the Joshua Bin-Nun Doctrine, indicating that the Palestinians should be given three options from which to choose, in a vein similar to that of the three letters sent to the nations inhabiting Canaan before the Israelites conquered it: Accept the latter’s rule and agree to live under it, and adhere to its terms and conditions; become displaced; or fight the Jews.[2] In other words, Smotrich seeks to implement biblical solutions in today’s complex strategic reality, and replace modern realpolitik considerations with halakhic decrees and messianic yearnings.
As part of this approach, faith in the determinism of redemption and confidence in Divine guidance is apparent, as is, in contrast, the lack of importance attributed to the views held by the international community. Behind the scenes, the stark absence of a profound discussion, not to mention consensus, on the state of affairs that the Religious Zionism strives to generate, or even an understanding of the implications of its realization, is felt on all levels, namely state, security, and economic.
At present, three processes that integrate into or even support the West Bank’s fusion with Israel. First, the PA is increasingly weakening, and does not seem likely to “collapse” so much as gradually decline, thereby forcing Israel to assume governmental responsibilities in various hubs across the West Bank. Second, Hamas is gaining strength rapidly, and its confidence is being bolstered by the PA’s dwindling. Finally, numerous Palestinians are becoming increasingly more despaired, particularly the younger generation, of the possibility of realizing their national goals, as well as of their leadership’s conduct, leading many of them to consider the One-State alternative positively.
These are joined by Israel’s “over-achievement” in its improvement of the economic state of affairs in the West Bank. While it has its roots in practical motivations such as preserving security stability by improving the Palestinians’ fabric of life, it effectively accelerates the West Bank’s merge into Israel.
This process did not follow dramatic announcements or political plans, but is, instead, driven by day-to-day bureaucracy: Civil infrastructures are merging (water, electricity, communications, transportation, etc.), the Palestinian labor market is assimilating into the Israeli one (at present, about 200,000 Palestinians work in Israel, constituting about a quarter of the Palestinian labor force in the West Bank), and the PA’s economic dependence on Israel, as reflected in the large share of tax returns within the PA’s budget (some 65%), is growing. Thus, "under the radar", while the collective is not aware or interested in it, a one-state reality is gradually forming.
13 September will mark 30 years to the signing of the Oslo Accords. Israel should use this symbolic event to engage in a collective discussion on the issue of the Palestinians. This existential topic is no less weighty than the judicial one on which Israel has been focusing this past year, perhaps more.
As part of such discourse, obsolete paradigms must be abandoned, and the fact that Israel now faces one of two possible alternatives realized: Either a One-State reality that would require it to determine whether it is an entity with two separate civil strata (Apartheid) or a State of all its citizens; or an attempt at physical separation based on an agreement with the Palestinians (the likelihood of which is slim under the current circumstances), or Unilaterally. Both of these last two scenarios are likely to face severe security, political, and internal challenges.
It is a choice between two evils. While separation, not even unilaterally, would not ensure quiet from a security perspective, it may prevent a charged and violent Balkan-style reality that would pose a threat to Israel’s ability to maintain the Zionist vision’s key objective – a Jewish and democratic state.
[1] Bezalel Smotrich, "The Tipping of the Scales", Ha-Shiloah, no. 6 (September 2017), pp. 81-101 (Hebrew). For a full translation into English visit
https://jfjfp.com/the-tipping-of-the-scales-by-smotrich-a-full-translation-into-english/
[2] Ribonut [Sovereignty], no. 9 (2018), p. 14 (Hebrew).
Authored by Dr. Michael Milshtein, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
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