Is Israel Prepared to Emerge from the Coronavirus Crisis?
By the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS,
Executive Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead | April 17, 2020
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There is a growing gap between countless promises surrounding emerging from the crisis, and failures that characterize management of the crisis that cloud the ability to realize the paramount need for a return to normalcy at some future date.
As long as Israel is unable to formulate and carry out a strategy for effectively dealing with the crisis, a strategy that encompasses all aspects - economic, health, employment and others - the likelihood of success is low. This is all the more so when there is no reliable intelligence picture, that is, comprehensive testing as a foundation for decision-making.
Under circumstances where lifting the lockdown is premature, requiring citizens to return again to shelter-in-place, a public credibility crisis might develop and pose difficulties in gaining the cooperation of the public.
In addition, Israel is liable to bring down on itself a heavy national calamity in the long run, if it opts for the annexation plan[1] and takes it forward; while national security challenges, first and foremost the Iranian one, are growing.
The document that follows focuses on these issues and additional strategic hotspots.
Flawed governmental function and potential for a credibility crisis
The Coronavirus crisis shows similarities to the Yom Kippur War failure.
The authorities failed to take action based on the early warnings provided by the outbreak of the epidemic in China. While at the home front - the health system and government at the local municipal level had been neglected for years. This state of affairs is reflected in official documents regarding emergency preparedness submitted to the Government on the eve of the outbreak of the epidemic.
The Challenge:
Systematic and synchronized action of all state bodies and systems with the objective of achieving effective treatment of the challenges faced, to prevent redundancies and to create a full and detailed real-time intelligence picture for all relevant executing agencies. Optimal utilization of state resources according to changing definitions of objectives, subject to guidelines set by one central management agent. This kind of conduct seems trivial, but it has not characterized the actions of the Government, and without such, there will be no solution.
Instead, the following weaknesses were glaringly apparent:
- Mixed signals as to when the lockdown will be lifted and promises of economic and employment-related solutions that are incompatible with realities;
- Refrain from full and optimal activation of the defense establishment and the IDF who are trained - unlike the Ministry of Health - in addressing emergency situations from all aspects.
- Above all, the tragedy on both a national level and on a moral plane in safeguarding the elderly and senior living facilities. The elderly, founding generations of the country, have been abandoned without sufficient relief - health wise, in material terms and from an emotional-moral standpoint.
Policy Recommendations:
Creating an emergency system that will assign specific missions to the various agencies and their taskforces. The defense establishment, the IDF and the Home Front Command will manage the conflict in all of its aspects through the tremendous resources at its disposal; the Ministry of Health will be the agency providing professional medical guidance; the Israeli Police Force will be responsible for enforcement within its authority, according to instructions.
The entire emergency system will be managed by a small-scale ‘Coronavirus cabinet’ that will strictly maintain transparency of information. Decisions of the cabinet will be based on a dramatic increase in the scope of testing, because this is parallel to intelligence necessary to wage the war. Acquisition of the means needed will be concentrated in the hands of a professional agent skilled in such a task.
In addition, a national setup for hasbara and spokespersonship needs to be established to maintain ongoing contact with the public. The hasbara network will present realistic and timely updates on the situation, with full transparency towards the public, in a manner that will prevent over-expectations. Clear communication with the public - down to the individual level, constitutes a significant factor in the success of coming out of the crisis.
An immediate focused emergency plan will be formulated to deal with the elderly and senior housing facilities that will address all aspects of their needs. It is totally unacceptable that elderly persons isolated and cut off from their families, will be left to die in their homes and eldercare facilities.
Annexation of Judea and Samaria, including the Jordan Valley as a strategic threat to Israel
A decision by the Israeli Government to annex will in the mid-to long-term, change forever Israel’s character. This decision has strategic ramifications on the development of relations in the Palestinian and regional arenas.
The Challenge:
Unilateral implementation of annexation of Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley will open up a strategic threat to Israel in the long-term. In the absence of any diplomatic horizon, the Palestinian Authority is liable to collapse. It can be assumed with a high level of certainty, that the Authority will not acquiesce to being turned into merely an instrument of Israeli control of the Palestinian population. This, together with internal economic weakness coupled with the medical crisis due to the Coronavirus, is liable to create a situation that one must be prepared for, where Israel will, by necessity, have to be pulled into the vacuum that will be created, and become the direct military governor of millions of Palestinians. The burden on Israel’s shoulders will be huge, security-wise, budget-wise and in terms of resources. At the same time, the power and prestige of radical elements such as Hamas and Iran, who in any case hold that the only option to deal with Israel is through violence and terrorism, are likely to increase.
There are those who see such appraisals as an empty scare scenario, but to the best of our understanding, the complexity of the issue and its potential ramifications demand orderly and thorough professional discussion, void of political motivations and considerations. In particular, it is imperative to weight the ramifications for the IDF which today enjoys an extended period of relative calm in Judea and Samaria, and is capable of carrying out all its missions without being required to manage the lives of the Palestinian population.
On a regional level, unilateral annexation constitutes a threat to the stability of Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom will perceive such a move as totally irreconcilable with its peace treaty with Israel, which is of immeasurable value to Israel’s national defense and saves lives and resources. Is it an Israeli interest to erode such a precious strategic asset?
Beyond this, annexation is liable to bring to a halt any chance of realizing plans for peace with other countries in the region. The security-strategic cooperation with the Arab states is an essential asset, particularly in regard to the Iranian threat.
Another issue tied to the annexation question relates to the future character of the State of Israel as the democratic state of the Jewish people. Weighing all the above in the scales, begs the question: Is annexation indeed a strategic security need or only a political one?
Policy Recommendations:
Israel would do well if it would refrain from a decision on annexation, whose strategic ramifications on relations with surrounding countries would be far reaching-in of all times, especially in the midst of a national crisis and without due consideration in a serious and analytical manner.
The Coronavirus crisis demonstrated the importance of the Palestinian Authority’s actions towards the Palestinian population, including in areas where Israeli governance is weak, such as Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem beyond the security barrier.
Preserving and deepening cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, its reinforcement and refrain from actions that could bring about its breakup in the mid- to long-term - are vital.
The Gaza “Time Bomb” as an Immediate Challenge
The Challenge:
An outbreak of the Coronavirus and a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, which is already in a fragile situation, could lead to implosion and the amassing of multitudes along the border fence with Israel. This could come on top of familiar military threats that already exist.
Policy Recommendations:
Israel has a vast interest in transferring immediate assistance (Israeli and international) to the Gaza Strip before the situation deteriorates and forces Israel to take action under pressure in an escalating situation.
The Iranian Treats is Accelerating
The Challenge:
Iran is grappling with an unprecedented challenge in the face of the Coronavirus crisis, parallel to suffering from worsening economic weaknesses. Despite this, the Iranian regime continues to develop and expand its nuclear program and its endeavors to develop and perfect its capabilities to inflict damage on Israel.
Policy Recommendations:
The Israeli Government needs to place the Iranian threat at the top of its security-diplomatic order of priorities. It is possible that Iran’s relative weaknesses at this juncture create an opportunity to enhance Israel’s focused multidimensional struggle in the face of the strategic threat Teheran presents.
A changing International Climate
The Challenge:
Due to the Coronavirus crisis, the world’s nations are converging inward and global power competition for a leading position and supremacy is growing. Under such conditions, international attention to the needs of Israel and the threats it grapples will decrease. Furthermore, in the face of escalation scenarios, the latitude of regional and international actors to intervene and to promote “de-escalation mechanisms” will also narrow.
Policy Recommendations:
A concerted effort to maintain open channels with the political, security and military establishments of states in the region and in the international arena, with emphasis on the American ones.
The Coronavirus crisis creates opportunities to deepen cooperation with a broad array of nations and international actors, based on the dramatic strategic changes taking place on the world map.
[1] As inspired by the Trump peace plan.
Authored by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS, Executive Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
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