Will Israel Miss a Historical Opportunity?

Written by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS

Executive Director - Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead

August 2023

^{Photos: Kremlin.ru | CC BY 4.0; Gage Skidmore | CC BY-SA 2.0; GPO - Haim Tzach}

Israel is currently facing a historical opportunity to advance the signing of a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Such a development could have far-reaching strategical implications for Israel’s national security and multidimensional strategic power. It is no coincidence, therefore, that a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia was set by Prime Minister Netanyahu himself as one of two overarching goals in the external arena upon entering office (the other being curbing Iran’s nuclear program).

The attainment of normalization depends upon the trilateral relations between Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel, and each country’s ability to promote understandings that would meet all three’s demands. In effect, this is one large package deal, the full realization of which depends on each party’s delivery of various components.

Israel’s strategic powers chipped away

Recent weeks have been revealing the weakening of Israel’s strategic powers and chipping away of national security and resilience resulting from the Israeli government’s overarching policy. These trends are manifest on the strategic, military, economic, and social levels. From a practical perspective, Israel’s character as a thriving democracy is in jeopardy; the country is on the brink of a huge rift that could project onto the IDF’s power; a deep crisis of trust is forming in its relations with the U.S. administration; the Arab world is extremely distraught over the steps taken by the Israeli government vis-à-vis the Palestinians; clear indications of detriment to the economy are seen, primarily among global rating companies and high-tech companies; and as a result Israel’s image of power is being eroded.

Israel’s enemies in the region, led by Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas, recognize these signs of weakness and continue to build up their forces, while exhibiting increasing confidence and boldness to challenge Israel, particularly Hizballah. In just four short months, the Lebanese organization has carried out a series of incidents – the terror attack in Megiddo Junction, rocket launching from Lebanon, setting up of 2 tents at Mount Dov, antitank missile fired that landed near Kafr Ghajar, provocations near the security fence and so on. It is no surprise, therefore, that the head of the military intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, warned during the Herzliya Conference that Nasrallah was close to making a mistake “that could plunge the region into a big war”.

Saudi Arabia - A strategic alliance with the United States in exchange for normalization

Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), is preparing to take the throne and formulating long-range plans that would establish Saudi Arabia as a world economic power and leader of the Muslim Arab world. He believes the cornerstone of the implementation of his vision is forging a lasting strategic partnership with the United States founded on three pillars:

Security guarantees including a commitment to come to Saudi Arabia’s aid in the event that it is attacked or that its national security is at risk.
Provision of the most advanced weapon systems, with emphasis placed on defense systems, but also on F35 fighter jets, and other arms.
Approval to set up an entire civilian nuclear power cycle in Saudi Arabia, including the receipt of U.S. power reactors.

According to the Saudi Crown Prince, another factor required for the realization of his vision is deescalating regional tension, including that between Saudi Arabia and its regional rivals - Iran, Syria, and Türkiye. To this end, MBS is willing to promote a normalization agreement with Israel, probably because he believes it to be his sole means of convincing the U.S. administration to agree to his demands. Moreover, bin Salman does not view political progress with the Palestinians as an essential prerequisite. Nevertheless, whether Saudi Arabia would indeed be willing to advance normalization while the Israeli government is taking unilateral steps to annex the West Bank in a way that could lead to broad escalation and project onto Jordan’s stability remains to be seen.

The United States demands a shift in the Israeli government’s conduct as a precondition to normalization

Restarting its relations with Saudi Arabia is an interest of utmost importance for the United States and a key component in its emerging conflict with China. Washington has gradually come to realize that its policy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia, and the Crown Prince in particular, during the first two years of the Biden Administration had pushed the kingdom toward China (and Russia). Nevertheless, in view of bin Salman’s weighty requests, the U.S. administration believes that it would only be able to grant them if it can promote a historical normalization agreement with Israel at the same time, especially since many members of Congress feel ambivalent about Saudi Arabia.

It seems that President Biden is willing to invest all the efforts in order to achieve Israeli-Saudi rapprochement in the coming few months. Biden has recently mentioned that a deal may be on the way with Saudi Arabia after talks that his national security adviser had with Saudi officials - "There’s a rapprochement maybe under way".

However, in America’s view, Israel must do its part to seal the deal. Concurrently, Israel must change its policy and conduct on two fundamental issues. The first is curbing the governmental coup that is threatening to undermine the shared democratic values serving as the foundation for the strategic alliance between Israel and the United States. This topic was also discussed during President Herzog’s visit to Washington. The second is the unilateral steps being taken by the Israeli government vis-à-vis the Palestinian system in order to enable the former to expand the settlements, which could lead to the Palestinian Authority’s collapse as well as to broad escalation.

Israel at a historical decision-making crossroad

Thus, the Israeli government could greatly impact the possibility of advancing the signing of a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. To do so, it must, first and foremost, actively shelve the governmental coup, and change its policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian system.

In fact, the Israeli government headed by Netanyahu is at a historical crossroad - it must choose whether it is going to be a thriving democracy and regional power with remarkable military, economic, and technological capabilities or shrivel up until it is a defunct country no longer founded on western values. The longer these destructive processes continue both internally and with regard to the Palestinians, so will the possibility of attaining normalization with Saudi Arabia fade away, along with the dream of entering a new era of Israeli relations with the Sunni Arab world, and the hope of huge joint economic collaborations across continents and borders.

Moreover, the ability to address the aggravating threat posed by Iran, especially curbing the Iranian nuclear program, depends greatly on Israel’s strategic ties with the United States, and the possibility of promoting defense partnerships with the Gulf states. Thus, an improvement in Israel’s relations with the U.S. administration and a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia could be a turning point in Israel’s overall contention with the threat posed by Iran. However, if its government should remain on the governmental coup track, its strategic ability to grapple with the set of threats posed to it by Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas will be chipped away.

This document was written by the team of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS)

Editted by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi.

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