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| Photo: Kobi Gideon, GPO |
A Call for Action Addressed
to the Israeli Prime Minister
-Releasing All Hostages Alive-
July, 2024
Nine months into the war, Israel’s state of affairs is bleak and complicated in the absence of an exit strategy. This lacuna could even erode the most significant of the IDF’s achievements on all fighting fronts, including the possibility of eliminating Hamas military commander, Mohammad Deif.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “total victory” strategy lacks a clear and defined action plan on how to end the multifrontal conflict so as to pave the way for rehabilitating Israel while effectively dealing with the head of the Iranian snake. It has become clear that the goals set by Prime Minister Netanyahu – returning all hostages; restoring the safety in the Gaza Envelope and Israel as a whole; as well as destroying Hamas’ governing and military capabilities - will not be achievable in the foreseeable future.
In the absence of a civil alternative to Hamas rule that is supported by the Arab world and international community, Israel could end up knee-deep in Gazan mud. Any ideas for finding government alternatives that are unaffiliated with the Palestinian Authority are doomed to fail and be met with Arab objection. As a result, Israel could be dragged into an extended presence requiring direct control over 2.2 million Gazans. Such control could place a heavy political, military, economic, and legal yoke around Israel’s neck.
Northern Israel is burning as Hizballah’s range of fire widens and commands high prices. Israel is on the verge of deteriorating into a large-scale conflict with Hizballah, despite both parties’ disinclination to engage in one. Such a conflict could lead to regional war involving Iran and its local proxies directly, at a time when dozens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced with no prospects of returning to their homes.
The Palestinian Authority is in the midst of a profound weakening process, primarily as a result of the policy being led by the government. Budgets are being cut down, over 120,000 Palestinians are denied work in Israel, and violent crimes against Palestinians are on the rise, while the government is making no determined efforts to ebb this trend. Thus, explosiveness on the ground is increasing, posing a threat to Israel.
Iran continues to promote a strategy for Israel’s annihilation. The Islamic Republic has positioned itself as a nuclear threshold state, and is currently in possession of enough enriched uranium to produce several nuclear bombs. All the while it continues to develop its ballistic missile and attack UAV arsenal, operating the firewall it has built around Israel. Its missile and UAV strike against Israel was unprecedented, demonstrating Iran’s growing confidence to attack Israel openly and directly. The surprising election of Pezeshkian as its president could help the Iranian leader promote his strategic perception that aims to mitigate domestic criticism, and improve Iran’s standing both internationally and regionally.
Implications and Recommendations
Israel, as U.S. National Security Advisor to the Vice President, Phil Gordon, has stated during the Herzliya Conference, is at a crossroad. On the one hand is a deal that would allow it to embark upon a new road to power, regional integration, and a better future; and, on the other, is a prolonged war, regional as well as international isolation, and the risk of a comprehensive regional flareup.
Israel’s immediate and most pressing overarching goal must be the return of all hostages alive, for their time is running out. An outline for their return and an extended ceasefire in Gaza could also lead to an arrangement up north. These processes would enable the pursuit of normalization and a broad regional alliance between Israel and the Arab countries led by the United States against the Iranian axis. At present, this option seems to be the only one that would allow Israel to pull itself out of the terrible crisis it has been enduring since October 7, and get back on track to multidimensional strategic power.
Hamas will only be destroyed as a terrorist military organization through the combination of the IDF’s remarkable military activity and the creation of a governing alternative that would garner the support of the United States, European Union, and Arab countries. Such a plan would enable an international-Arab coalition to form that would help manage Gaza, alongside local Palestinian parties, and would also be willing to invest the billions of U.S. Dollars required to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip.
On the political level, Prime Minister Netanyahu must restore the special strategic relations with the U.S. administration, and avoid public steps that could further compromise them. Prime Minister Netanyahu must retain bipartisan support wherever possible, and certainly refrain from emerging, particularly during his upcoming speech in Congress on July 24, as a collaborator with the Republican Party on the eve of elections.
Vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, the Israeli government must put an immediate end to all processes designed to lead to the former’s weakening to the point of its disbanding, such as the transfer of tax money, and building outposts. At the same time, the Israeli government should allow Palestinian workers to enter Israel under strict supervision, while taking determined action to end nationalist crime.
Deepening the collaboration with Egypt is vital to realizing the strategic advantages offered by the peace treaty, such as a fundamental and coordinated effort to address tunnels and smuggling, which serve as the oxygen supply for Hamas’ force buildup. Israel’s relations with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan are of utmost importance, as this ally serves as Israel’s eastern security front. The protests in Jordan, coupled with Iran’s ongoing efforts to destabilize its regime, call for Israel to provide its ally with all the support it needs to regain its strength. Israel should agree to give Jordan the water quotas required for an extended period of time, while avoiding any defiant declarations and steps, particularly in the holy sites in Jerusalem, that could put a dent in the king’s image.
Domestically, Prime Minister Netanyahu is advised to promote steps that would bring the different parts of Israeli society closer together, bridging over the current gaps and divides. One such measure would be to follow the High Court of Justice’s ruling on the matter of drafting the ultra-Orthodox. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also required to stop his government ministers’ venomous retortions at the heads of the IDF and defense establishment, for these cause detriment to both national efforts and the coordination needed between the political and security echelons.
Prime Minister Netanyahu must prioritize the budget allocation in alignment with national needs as opposed to sectorial ones so as to provide a solution for the growing distress among reservists, the dozens of thousands of evacuees in Israel’s north and south, and many nationwide systems, such as health and mental health. Finally, Prime Minister Netanyahu must set up a state inquiry committee. In addition to the national and value-based importance of such a committee, it could also help Israel’s efforts to curb the risks of having the international courts in the Hague issuing judgments against it, such as the threat to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu himself and Minister of Defense Gallant.
In summary, Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently facing a fateful decision for Israel’s future. It is time for Netanyahu, as the head of this state, to make courageous decisions befitting a leader in Israel’s best interest from both the national and security perspectives.
This document was written by the team of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS)
Executive Director: Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
Editted by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
By the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS,
Authored by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS, Executive Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
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