The Palestinian Arena Faces Unprecedented Challenges
By the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS,
Executive Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead | July, 2023
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| Photo: GPO |
The series of events taking place in the West Bank is becoming a key threat to Israel’s national security as a whole. In the operational sphere, the defense establishment successfully thwarts most murderous terror attacks. However, in the political sphere, the Israeli government has embraced a dangerous policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian system that accelerates the Palestinian Authority’s ebbing, as well as Iran and Hamas’ entrenchment in the West Bank.
In addition, nationalist acts of terror are being carried out by Jewish settlers against the Palestinian population. They undermine Israel’s governability in the West Bank, while causing detriment to its international standing and relations with other countries in the region. One manifestation of these threats may be found in the unusual statement made by the IDF Chief of General Staff, Head of the Israel Security Agency (ISA, also known as the Shin Bet), and Chief of Israel Police whereby these acts amount to “nationalist terror” and will be actively eliminated.
From a broader strategic perspective, Israel’s policy on the Palestinian issue is deepening the cracks in its strategic ties with the U.S. administration while sabotaging its essential relations with the Arab world. It is causing substantial damage to the government’s ability to form a comprehensive response to the aggravating threats posed by Iran and its local proxies, and promote normalization with Saudi Arabia.
Weakening Security on the Ground
The security escalation in the West Bank, primarily in Jenin and Nablus, has resulted from several in-depth processes that have been gradually evolving into a tangible threat against Israel’s national security.
First and foremost is the weakening of the Palestinian Authority and already precarious status of its leader, Abu Mazen, who is almost 90. Although the PA remains in control of the West Bank, it has lost a considerable part of its governability in northern Samaria, and the Palestinian security apparatuses refrain so far from operating in that region.
Setting this scene are the ongoing political stagnation alongside the PA’s negative image among the Palestinian public, and especially, the younger generation. At the same time, Israel’s actions are, in effect, changing reality in the West Bank, as Jewish communities are being enhanced in a way that gradually diminishes the possibility of promoting separation between the two nations in future. In the long range, by neglecting the political part of the Palestinian equation, and despite the security agencies’ operational successes when thwarting terror attacks, Israel could be dragged into a one-state scenario that would force it to become much more involved on the ground.
From a broader perspective, paradoxically, over the last 12 months, some economic improvement has been recorded in the West Bank. This development is expressed in several aspects, primarily a declining unemployment rate, and stabilizing purchasing power across the West Bank, all of which seem to contradict the overall feebleness projected by the PA. The explanation for this complex state of affairs probably lies in greater Israeli impact on the Palestinian economy, as Palestinians employed in Israel earn two or three times as much as Palestinians working within the PA. In the long term, Israel’s deepening economic influences could serve as basis for a future political-strategic merge.
In parallel, the wave of Jewish nationalist terror against Palestinian inhabitants is causing detriment to Israel’s national security. Such acts of terror prompt the Palestinian population to respond, evoke international as well as regional criticism, and undermines the security forces’ legitimacy to operate on the ground. Thus, a joint, poignant and highly unusual statement issued by representatives from the United States and Europe has severely criticized Israel, demanding that, being the responsible force in the region, it ensure the safety of the Palestinian population, and punish those who carry out the attacks. Furthermore, the defense establishment is forced to reallocate forces in order to address Jewish terrorism, thereby impeding its ability to respond to Palestinian terrorism.
In addition, the Israeli government’s decisions to promote the construction of more than 5,000 residential units in Jewish communities in the West Bank, establish and legalize new outposts, as well as relocate the Homesh Yeshiva reflect a constant shift on the ground in the West Bank, at times in the absence of public declarations or under no predetermined, well-formed strategy. Such steps could, in effect, make the notion of a single state very real, and reduce the chances of separating the two peoples.
Moreover, commitments made by Israeli prime ministers to the U.S. administration over the last 20 years are being violated, thus exacerbating Washington’s dismay with the Israeli government’s policies, as well as its concern that Israel is attempting to actively change reality on the ground by promoting incremental annexation processes. Such government steps, if taken, will have a negative effect on the efforts to advance normalization with Saudi Arabia, and deepen the collaborations, certainly those publicized, with Sunni Arab countries. Morocco’s decision to postpone the Negev Forum scheduled for July 2023, alongside Saudi Arabia’s and other Arab countries’ strong condemnations of these steps, could be regarded as writing on the wall, alerting to potential detriment to Israel’s relations with Arab countries.
Hamas as a Generator of Multifrontal Escalation
In recent years, Hamas has embraced an “inverse separation” policy vis-à-vis Israel. Overall, it maintains quiet in the Gaza Strip in exchange for significant economic benefits, including working permits in Israel for 17,000 Gazans and the receipt of various goods, enabling Hamas to remain in control of the Gaza Strip. At the same time, however, it also attempts to stoke the flames by directing terror attacks against Israel from the West Bank as well as Lebanon. Hamas’ hold over the West Bank is growing accordingly, as its victory in the elections held in May 2023 at former Fatah strongholds Al Najah and Birzeit Universities clearly shows.
Iran is also fueling the fire of incitement in the West Bank, primarily by financing the various terror infrastructures. In Tehran’s view, the West Bank and Gaza Strip are yet another front in its overall campaign against Israel. It is therefore consistently deepening its ties with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), as demonstrated by Chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and PIJ leader Ziad Nakhaleh’s recent visits to Tehran.
Behind the scenes, Iran’s military buildup processes, the fortification of its strategic axis with China and Russia, warming of relations with the Arab world, and prospect of reaching understandings with the United States on nuclear, alongside Israel’s weakening image, are raising Iran and its proxies’ self-confidence in the region, as exhibited in Tehran’s growing boldness to challenge Israel. The Megiddo bombing and establishment of a Hizballah outpost at Mount Dov reflect this trend.
Recommendations
It is now clear that the governmental coup poses a tangible threat to Israel’s national security and strategic powers. The Israeli government should therefore definitively shelf all unilateral steps that aim to alter the judiciary.
At the same time, Israel must revise its policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian system, and actively pursue the stabilization of the Palestinian Authority. In this context, it is absolutely essential to avoid economic punishment, as such a step would further destabilize the Palestinian administration, and instead continue to collaborate with the Palestinian security apparatuses across the West Bank. The Israeli government should also curb its unilateral Jewish community expansion policy, while engaging in harsh and unbiased elimination of terror attacks carried out by Jewish settlers against Palestinian inhabitants.
On the operational level, the successful activity (as was proved in operation "Home and Garden") should be continued, but only under the guidance of professional considerations. At the same time, it is essential to carefully avoid acting upon populist slogans with low operative effectiveness and a high-risk factor, particularly with regard to the tensions bleeding to other areas in the West Bank and elsewhere.
As for Hamas, Israel should prevent it from deepening its hold in the West Bank while being cautious so as not to give cause to the waging of a religious war around Temple Mount, especially in the days leading up to 27 June, when the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha (Festival of Sacrifice) will begin.
Finally, Israel’s overall strategic power is founded on intelligence-military might and a broad political strategy. Therefore, is it advisable that the Israeli government set its relations with the U.S. administration back on track, first and foremost, as well as maintain its strategic collaborations with Arab countries, and prevent the Palestinian Authority’s collapse. Any other choice would be detrimental to the prime minister’s ability to achieve the two overarching goals set when this government entered office, namely addressing the Iranian nuclear challenge, and promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia.
Authored by the Institute for Policy and Strategy Team, IPS, Executive Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
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