The Impact of the Antidemocratic Coup on the Strategic U.S.-Israel Partnership
By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi | January, 2023
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| Photos: Avi Ohayon - GPO |
The U.S. administration is sharpening its messages for the Israeli government, warning of the possible repercussions of promoting the judiciary reform and steps vis-à-vis the Palestinians on the bilateral relations. In fact, a direct link has emerged between the government’s continuing advancement of changes to the justice system and the higher frequency and growing intensity of messages conveyed by senior U.S. officials on this topic – from general statements on the importance of preserving shared democratic values to express warning on possible implications if harm will come to them.
A manifestation of the above can be found in President Biden’s statement as quoted by Thomas Friedman in his New York Times op-ed (entitled “In 46 Words, Biden Sends a Clear Message to Israel”), whereby building consensus for the reforms the government is promoting is crucial. Similarly, U.S. Ambassador Nides said that he had suggested to Prime Minister Netanyahu to “pump the breaks”, and slow down the pace at which the reforms are being advanced. Nides further implied that the U.S. administration’s ability to provide support and collaborate on issues that are important to Israel is reliant upon it.
At the same time, Washington also attributes great significance to maintaining quiet in the Palestinian arena. Thus, according to few sources, the U.S. administration has warned the Israeli government that it would consider the subordination of COGAT and the Civil Administration to Minister Smotrich an act of annexation. Washington also seems to have forced Israel to agree to avoid approving further planning and construction in settlements in the next few months, as well as suspend the demolition of Palestinian homes in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, among other things. This is part of a deal formulated with Israel and the Palestinian Authority designed to prevent the promotion of a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel (which would force the U.S. administration to decide whether or not to veto it), and instead issuing a presidential statement on this matter. The United States’ support for the statement, which voiced “deep concern” over settlement expansion jeopardizing the two-state solution while, in effect, condemning Israel, reflected the administration’s discontent with Israel’s conduct, and the latter’s approval to legitimize outposts and build more residential units. Finally, the sharp criticism voiced by the administration towards the statements made by Minister Smotrich on the issue of Huwara, as well as the question marks regarding his trip to the United States and the refusal of government officials to meet with him, constitute a clear message regarding the White House's disgust for Israel's policy regarding the Palestinians in general and extreme statements in particular.
Alerting to damage to closeness of relations
The current U.S. administration attributes great importance to maintaining liberal and democratic values, which it perceives as key aspects of shaping world order, as well as of the power struggles against the axis of authoritarianism led by China and Russia. It therefore genuinely fears the possibility whereby the Israeli and U.S. governments are on an ideological and value-based collision course, the implications of which could be far-reaching for Israel’s national security and resilience.
The U.S. administration has been reiterating time and again since the outcomes of the Knesset elections were publicized that it holds the prime minister alone accountable for government policies. The fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has yet to be officially invited to visit Washington reflects the growing disapproval within the U.S. administration of the steps being taken by the Israeli government on judicial issues and with regard to the Palestinians. Moreover, the administration is signaling to Netanyahu that, if the government’s policy will not be altered, Israel could find itself on a collision course with the White House.
In addition, the series of visits by senior officials to Israel since the government was formed (the last of which was the visit of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley) reflect the growing concern and the urgent need to coordinate positions and may also warn against the possible consequences of Israeli policy.
This means that, at some point, the U.S. administration’s warnings will become actual active responses that could gradually exacerbate. Such reactions may hamper the closeness of the ties between the two countries, gnaw at the U.S. administration’s broad support for Israeli stances, chip away at its willingness to defend Israel in international forums (the UN Security Council and courts in the Hague), and, under an extreme scenario, prove detrimental to the depth of assistance offered when addressing the strategic threats that Israel faces in both international and regional theaters. This potential development is still divorced from the ongoing strong and deep security-military-intelligence based collaborations.
Preserving the strategic alliance at all costs
The United States is Israel’s most important strategic source of support. Shaking the foundations underlying the alliance between the two countries will impede Israel’s strategic power. The special relations serve as a crucial condition for coping with the growing threat posed by Iran, and curbing the nuclear program’s continued progress (as demonstrated in the reports of uranium being enriched to 84%, close to the weapons-grade threshold of 90%). Furthermore, the profound partnership is also essential to the deepening of security relations with the Gulf states, promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, the IDF’s force buildup processes, and Israel’s economic resilience.
The U.S. administration’s calls and warnings form a strategic alert for the government. Under the current circumstances, and in view of the multidimensional threats that Israel faces, the government should strive to deepen and broaden its collaborations with the American government at all costs. To do so, it must take immediate action to remove all obstacles and hurdles, while establishing a relationship that is based on mutual trust and shared values. Any disagreements should be resolved behind the scenes, and not aired publicly in an effort to win some political points or improve someone’s image. Otherwise, the price paid by Israel’s national security may prove too high, as our enemies are not sitting idly, but posing ever-aggravating threats. The government must realize that ignoring the U.S. administration’s warnings could drag Israel into hazardous domains.
Authored by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
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