Saudi Arabia and the Strategic Arab Axis

By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi | February, 2024

Israel is currently facing a historical opportunity to sign a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia while partaking in the processes that the U.S. administration is attempting to promote, at the heart of which is the establishment of a regional security framework between Israel and the Arab peace camp states. Such an alliance would allow Israel to develop a comprehensive multidimensional response to the Iranian axis. It would also provide it with the latitude needed to continue with its military actions as part of the effort to destroy Hamas while actively shaping a new reality vis-á-vis Hizballah in the north. This alliance further harbors potential for largescale economic opportunities in the form of a land route from India to Europe via Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Path to two state solution - necessary condition

Whereas prior to October 7th the Palestinian obstacle seemed easily surmountable, these days it is clear that the Palestinian issue will play a key role in the negotiations to achieve normalization and establish a regional alliance. In fact, one of the main conditions to it will be Israel’s willingness to integrate the “revitalized” Palestinian Authority into the processes of rehabilitating the Gaza Strip and outline prospects of a peace process vis-á-vis the Palestinians. Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, has recently stated that normalization will not be established in the absence of a solution to the issue of the Palestinian, revealing a stark contrast with the kingdom’s former official position as reflected in Saudi Crown Prince’s September 2023 Fox interview, during which Mohammed bin Salman had avoided making the establishment of a Palestinian state a prerequisite for promoting normalization with Israel. The Arab states have also made it clear that they would not be willing to partake and invest resources in Gaza’s rehabilitation unless the Palestinian Authority will participate in this process too.

Furthermore, the U.S. and UK seem to be coordinated in their efforts to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu into resolving the issue of the Palestinians. According to media reports, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has instructed his department to look into the possibility of recognizing a Palestinian state. Earlier, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron declared that his country was considering recognizing a Palestinian state. These statements reflect the key role attributed to the Palestinian issue, and demonstrate both U.S. and UK’s inclination to look into various options while bypassing Netanyahu in order to promote President Biden’s vision of a regional alliance on the “day after”. In this context it is noteworthy that President Biden had cited the intent to curb normalization processes as one of the reasons behind Hamas’ murderous attack in view of such normalization’s implications on reality in the Middle East.

The Saudi demands from the U.S.

It is only natural that the Palestinian issue be at the center of public attention. Nevertheless, we must remember that Saudi Arabia’s willingness to promote normalization with Israel hinges on several other conditions. The Saudi Crown Prince seeks to turn his country into the leader of the Muslim world by forging strategic relations with the United States founded on three key pillars: Setting up a defense alliance similar to the one formed between the U.S., South Korea and Japan; U.S. willingness to sell its most advanced weapons systems to Saudi Arabia, such as F35 fighter jets; and the development of a civil nuclear program in the kingdom, including uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.

Reports indicate that the U.S. is willing to discuss a defense alliance with Saudi Arabia regardless of the possible promotion of normalization with Israel, which means Israel’s ability to impact the terms of this agreement could be quite limited.

Constraints on the road to normalization and a regional alliance

There are a number of constraints on the political level and in core issues that inhibit progress toward normalization in upcoming months. It appears that Netanyahu would have to choose between promoting a broad regional strategy and ensuring his government remains intact by focusing on domestic politics since the U.S. administration and Arab states have made it clear that they expect him to foster a “day after” policy that gives the Palestinian Authority a key role in Gaza’s rehabilitation processes while providing peace prospects that align with the two-state principle.

Moreover, President Biden is under stringent political time constraints if he is to ratify the agreement in the U.S. Senate within the next few months since the presidential elections are due to be held in November. Bin Salman insists on having any agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. approved by the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress to avoid the risk of a future U.S. president’s attempt to roll it back. To do so, Biden would have to garner the support of 67 senators, of them at least 16 Republicans, assuming all Democratic senators would vote in favor of the agreement, including those who support the two-state solution or feel animosity toward the Saudi Crown Prince. Former U.S. President Trump and his cronies’ expected objection to any deal that Biden might try to promote and profit from politically must also be taken into consideration.

From a security perspective, the Saudis’ demands from the U.S. pose a significant challenge to Israel, particularly the sale of advanced weapons, which could impact Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME). Moreover, U.S. willingness to provide Saudi Arabia with the ability to enrich uranium on its own soil could break down barriers and lead to a nuclear race in the Middle East, with primary contenders being Egypt and Turkey.

Implications & Recommendations

Israel under Netanyahu’s leadership is at a pivotal crossroads for establishing a regional alliance and promoting a historical peace agreement with the most important country in the Arab and Muslim world. Such an agreement would set up a camp led by the United States against the axis headed by Iran and supported by Russia in such a manner as to impact the strategic balance in the Middle East for many years to come. To this end, Prime Minister Netanyahu must prioritize national strategic considerations over personal political ones, as the alternative, namely a collapse of these processes, could be detrimental to Israel’s relations with the U.S. administration and Arab states while also chipping away at Israel’s overall strategic powers.

In any event, Israel should ensure that the United States will maintain the IDF’s qualitative military edge (QME), and that sufficient defense mechanisms are put in place to tighten the oversight and limitations over the civil nuclear program that Saudi Arabia is seeking to build.

Authored by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.

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