U.S.-Israel Relations - A Strategic Warning

By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi​​ | August, 2023

Photos: Avi Ohayon - GPO

The U.S. President’s poignant criticism of the Israeli government’s policies reflects the growing distance between Biden and Netanyahu’s administrations. In the Israeli government’s early days, Washington had expressed its apprehension behind closed doors, while attempting to downplay the disagreements; however, as the weeks have passed, it has become very clear that a crisis was in the making, reflected in more direct and public criticism from the White House and senior U.S. government officials.

America’s dismay with Israel focuses on two key issues - the governmental coup and its conduct vis-à-vis the Palestinians. In an interview for CNN, President Biden stated that the current Israeli administration is the most extreme government I have seen since the days of Golda Meir, and vehemently attacked the policy being led by extreme government ministers vis-à-vis the Palestinians. The unusual statement made by senior U.S. government officials whereby Israel must respect the right to protest - often conveyed to dictatorial regimes – is yet another manifestation of growing rifts between the two countries.

The sour relations and distrust between Biden and Netanyahu are reflected in the fact that, despite the security challenges Israel is facing, and quite unprecedentedly, the Israeli Prime Minister has not been invited to visit Washington since forming his government, even after the phone conversation with President Biden. In addition, ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir, who play key roles in Netanyahu’s government, are being shunned by the U.S. administration, and its officials refuse to meet with them. In this context, therefore, Israeli President Herzog’s visit to Washington aimed to convey the message whereby the U.S. administration is finding fault not with Israel, but with its government.

Shared values jeopardized

Outgoing U.S. Ambassador Nides stated that the United States was trying to stop Israel from “going off the rails”, and that he had asked Netanyahu to “pump the brakes” and “try to reach a consensus”. These statements reflect the growing concern in Washington over the negative implications of Israel’s continued pursuit of unilateral steps that will lead to drastic changes in its judiciary. The U.S. administration believes these could be detrimental to Israel’s democratic-liberal character, while jeopardizing the shared values underlying the strategic alliance between the two countries.

The journalist Tom Friedman expressed this concern by saying: "If we are not seen to share that democratic value, it will be difficult to sustain the special relationship that Israel and America have enjoyed for the last 75 years for another 75 years".

A survey on the views embraced by the American public on Israel presented at the Herzliya Conference revealed that the vast majority of Americans (nearly 80%) attribute great importance to democratic values as a key consideration in forging and maintaining relations with other countries worldwide. It further showed that about 70% of the American public believe that Israel’s being a democracy is one of the main reasons why the relations between the two countries are deemed important. Thus, most Americans (60%) feel they can criticize Israel when the latter adopts policies that contradict American values. In other words, the public criticism currently being levelled is not to be associated with the whims and desires of one administration or another, for it reflects the authentic view of the American public.

Changing the status quo vis-à-vis the Palestinians

The U.S. administration believes that the Israeli government, led by ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir, is actively seeking to change the status quo vis-à-vis the Palestinians while gradually annexing territories in the West Bank inter alia by abolishing the Disengagement Law, approving the construction of more than 5,000 residential units, and legalizing the Eviatar outpost and others, including the Homesh Yeshiva. This policy further weakens the Palestinian Authority, which is declining as it is, while increasing the risk of slipping toward a single-state reality, and shelving of the two-state solution.

Moreover, Jewish settlers are performing acts of terror against Palestinian residents. According to the U.S. administration, Israel’s leniency against perpetrators of nationalist crimes is interpreted as encouraging more attacks. This too contributes to the erosion in Israel’s image as a democratic, liberal state, and could lead to escalation across the board on the ground.

These processes could project onto the extent of support given by the American public to Israel and the Palestinians. A survey presented at the Herzliya Conference showed that overall support of Israel and the importance of U.S-Israel relations remain high among Americans; however, in-depth trends indicate substantial gaps between Republicans and Democrats, as well as between the older and younger generations, reflecting the decline in bipartisan support of Israel recorded in the United States in recent years. Republicans generally support Israel more than Democrats, although the former too have seen a decline in this area. Support of the Palestinians among Democrats, however, is on the rise, and is considerably higher than it is among Republicans. At the same time, significant differences in support for Israel emerge between the younger and older generations. The older generation sympathizes with Israel far more than the younger generations does, particularly millennials (who are expected to form the U.S. administration’s future leadership). These developments in Americans’ support patterns could have far-reaching implications over support for Israel among elected U.S. officials too. The increasingly critical approach to Israel embraced by progressive members of the Democratic Party certainly reflects these trends.

Implications - Detriment to strategic strengths

The United States serves as a central pillar in Israel’s national security and resilience, and there is no substitute for the strategic alliance between the two countries. U.S.-Israel relations have survived several grave crises in recent decades. However, it seems that, unlike past turbulence, as far back as President Ford’s term in office, that erupted due to matters of state and security, this time the crisis revolves around values forming the basis for the strategic alliance between Israel and the United States, making it far more severe. Especially in light of the fact that President Biden was one of Israel’s greatest supporters in Washington over the last few decades.

The absence of a direct, intimate dialogue between the Israeli prime minister and American president has a profound impact on the ability to form and promote strategic collaborations, as well as an effect on Israel’s image of power in the global, regional, and domestic arenas. The current state of affairs could have significant implications for Israel’s overarching strategic power, and its ability to confront the external threats posed to it by Iran and its local proxies. It could also cause detriment to Israel’s relations with Arab countries, and the possibility of promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia. It is no coincidence that President Biden said that Israel and Saudi Arabia are “a long way” from normalization, implying a direct link between the changes required in Israeli policy and the chances of reaching an Israeli-Saudi agreement.

Moreover, the judiciary’s diminished status and independence, as well as the unilateral steps vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, and Jewish settlers’ terrorism could also negatively project onto the U.S. administration’s ability and willingness to provide Israel with a state-judicial defense umbrella, particularly in view of the attempts to pursue legal action against it in the international institutions, namely the UN Security Council and International Criminal Court. Despite these trends, the deep and intimate security-military-intelligence cooperations are likely to continue as usual.

Recommendations - A change in policy is needed

In view of the exacerbating crisis of trust and strategic damage, it seems that the only way the Israeli prime minister could get things back on track is by shelving the governmental coup and policy change vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority. Any other option would further deepen the chasm between the Israeli and American administrations, and could result in great detriment to Israel’s strategic powers, which would play into the hands of our enemies in the region.

With regard to the Palestinians, the Israeli government should avoid taking steps that could lead to the Palestinian Authority’s collapse, and be interpreted as preparation for gradual annexation of territories in the West Bank. From a practical perspective, the Israeli government is advised to continue, and even expand, the economic alleviations while curbing the unilateral processes of legalizing outposts and approving construction. At the same time, the Israeli government should take severe action to end the perpetration of nationalist crimes against Palestinian residents.

Finally, we suggest that Israel’s Prime Minister forcefully condemn his cabinet ministers’ tongue-lashing against senior U.S. officials, and demand that they cease this behavior at once, for it is widening the gaps between the two administrations’ stances, and fueling their value-based clash

Authored by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.

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