Jordan - Between Strategic Interests and Domestic Constraints

By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi​​ | September, 2023

Photo: CC-BY-4.0:© European Union 2019 – Source: EP

Since the early days of the war, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has had to maneuver between its strategic security interests and domestic constraints. It seems that the Hashemite Kingdom realizes that the Israel-Hamas War is, in fact, a war between the peace state camp headed by the United States and the radical axis led by Iran and supported by Russia. Thus, the outcomes of the war will project directly onto the kingdom’s condition and status in the region. At the same time, Jordan strives to avoid an expansion of the conflict, and its spilling over into the West Bank and other areas, since such a development could have direct implications for the kingdom’s internal stability, inter alia due to the fact that an estimated 70 percent of its citizens are of Palestinian descent.

And, indeed, Jordan’s conduct reveals it to be between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, in the public sphere, Jordanian officials, including King Abdullah and Queen Rania, are criticizing Israel harshly. They maintain that Israel’s actions in Gaza are disproportionate, constituting collective punishment against Gazans, and possibly amounting to a war crime. Queen Rania has even expressed her doubts about the extent of the atrocities perpetrated on October 7th. Domestic and regional pressures were probably at the root of Jordan’s decision to cancel the quadrilateral summit due to be held in Amman and attended by President Biden, President el-Sisi, and Abu Mazen. The same setting had prompted Jordan’s Foreign Minister to announce that his country will not be signing the water and energy exchange agreement with Israel due to the war.

In addition, Jordan is exerting tremendous pressure to enable significant humanitarian aid to be provided to the Gaza Strip, while extensively underscoring the aid that it too has provided to Gazans, inter alia by means of an aircraft dropping cases containing humanitarian aid. In a symbolic gesture, the Hashemite Kingdom has also recalled its ambassador to Israel. On the internal front, the Jordanian regime is allowing protests to be held on the kingdom’s soil under strict supervision, and harsh criticism to be directed at Israel by its parliament, including calls to terminate the peace treaty. Having realized that it cannot stop them from happening, it is allowing venting in a controlled, regulated fashion.

On the other hand, Jordan is avoiding taking any steps that would cause actual detriment to its bilateral relations with Israel. It also took part in the resolutions made by the Islamic Summit held a month ago in Saudi Arabia, which had, in effect, demonstrated the profound gaps between the two camps. Despite their poignant phrasing, in practice, these resolutions lacked all tangible operative significance against Israel.

The op-ed King Abdullah had published in the Washington Post reflects the complexity of Jordan’s stance, and the king’s need to advance a long-range political horizon. While criticizing Israel, the king had argued that “the war in Gaza [is] dividing the world” into two conflicting narratives – one Palestinian, the other Israeli. He therefore believes that “a concerted international effort to develop a regional architecture of peace, security and prosperity, built on a Palestinian-Israeli peace based on the two-state solution, is a priority”.

The peace treaty and strategic partnership between Israel and Jordan are a key component in Israel’s national security perception. In fact, Jordan forms strategic depth for Israel, and an essential part of its eastern border’s defense attempts at thwarting terrorist infiltration and weapon smuggling.

Israel must therefore prioritize the Hashemite Kingdom’s stability, and avoid steps and statements that could harm it, since any damage caused to Jordan’s stability could lead to the fundamental destabilization of Israel’s security architecture. Government officials are therefore advised to publicly reject and avoid raising any ideas such as those in support of transferring Gazans to other countries in the region. In Jordan’s eyes, such ideas, similar to the notions previously raised of an “alternative homeland” (al watan al badil), pose a tangible threat to the kingdom’s national security, and could cause genuine detriment to the bilateral relations that are already strained these days as it is. It is no coincidence that Jordan’s Foreign Minister has already warned that any attempt to displace Palestinians would be a “red line” for his country, and considered as war having been declared.

The article was published in Hebrew in Israel Defense, 11/17/2023

Authored by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.

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