Where are U.S.-Israeli Relations Headed?
By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi | February, 2023
 |
| Photos: Avi Ohayon - GPO |
Since the new Israeli government was formed, the U.S. administration has been conveying public messages whereby it expects it to protect the shared democratic values that have formed the basis for the strategic alliance between the two countries for the past 70 years. Israel also has to avoid unilateral steps vis-à-vis the Palestinians, primarily expanding settlements, and altering the status quo in the holy sites, while maintaining the two-state principle (despite the realization that, at present, the chances of promoting a solution are impractical).
This position, which was expressed by President Biden and during the visits of senior officials to Israel (Secretary Blinken, National Security Advisor, Suilivan) joins a series of remarks made by American politicians and individuals in the American Jewish community, as well as several articles published in the media. All of them have expressed grave concern over the steps being promoted by the Israeli government, which could be detrimental to Israel’s democratic character. They reflect the great importance attributed by the Biden Administration and large parts of the American public to the protection of democratic and liberal values. This view has been further validated by internal U.S. processes and separatism in American society that have grown in recent years, inter alia following former President Trump and his supporters’ refusal to accept the outcomes of the presidential elections as legitimate. According to Biden, the outcomes of the midterm elections had demonstrated the trust the American people have in his leadership and the liberal worldview he strives to promote.
Since entering office, and, indeed, in his various capacities these past few decades in government, President Biden has proven that he is committed to Israel’s security, and willing to invest many resources to ensure it. Moreover, his administration has shown tremendous understanding for the Israeli policy on a host of issues, even if it does not tally with its expectations of it, for instance, with regard to Israel’s support of Ukraine, because it recognizes the security constraints that Israel faces.
Thus, the new Israeli government should attribute great importance to the messages conveyed by the U.S. administration, and avoid testing President Biden, or taking his support for granted. The U.S. President himself is, more than likely, interested in avoiding what he views as a problematic situation, wherein he would be forced to reconcile his country’s alliance with Israel, which he strives to preserve, with the liberal values in which he believes.
Subsequently, the Israeli government should beware of a scenario in which the U.S. President would be disappointed by the steps the former is taking, which, in his view, harbor potential for changing Israel’s character and its relationship with the Palestinians. Such a development could lead to a grave response that would manifest itself, inter alia, in eroding the U.S. administration’s support for the Israeli stances by expressing public criticism, refusing to meet senior officials in the political system, appearing disinclined to exert its impact to curb steps taken against Israel in international establishments, and dragging heels when Israel makes requests (even in security-related areas). In this context, one might recall that, in the later stages of its term in office, the Obama Administration had avoided vetoing UN Security Council Resolution 2334, which recognized the settlements built in territories occupied in 1967 as illegal.
Recommendations – There is no substitute for the strategic alliance
Prime Minister Netanyahu has prioritized addressing the aggravating threat posed by Iran and curbing its nuclear program, alongside the expansion of the Abraham Accords and having Saudi Araba join the normalization states, as part of his new government’s foreign policy. To achieve these goals, it is crucial to have the United States deeply engaged.
The Israeli policy vis-à-vis the U.S. administration must be founded, first and foremost, on the understanding that there is no substitute for the strategic, value-based alliance between Israel and the United States. The special ties with the American government are essential to the accomplishment of Israel’s strategic objectives, including the preservation of its status and power, economic resilience, IDF force buildup processes, and the ability to grapple with the aggravating threat posed by Iran. This is particularly true in light of the assessment that a new nuclear deal is not on the cards, while Iran’s nuclear program continues to progress. A new strategic perception must therefore be formed together with the U.S. administration in order to address the Iranian threat, and show Iran that both countries are determined to take the required action to prevent it from developing weapons-grade nuclear capabilities.
The new government should seize the opportunity to establish the relationship upon mutual trust and shared interests. Thus, and in view of past incidents between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Democratic establishment, we suggest conveying a message of willingness to his counterparts to consider the requests made by President Biden and refrain from surprising him.
Israel should also exhibit great caution in its relations with China, particularly with regard to all collaborations in sensitive areas (cyber, technologies, etc.), and conduct itself with great transparency vis-à-vis the U.S. administration. China is viewed by the latter as its main threat reference, and as the only country to provide a feasible alternative to the United States’ standing in the global arena as well as in the Middle East due to its increasing geopolitical aspirations and capabilities, as recently manifest in the spy balloon incident and President Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia.
In view of the fact that the two upcoming years are expected to exacerbate separatism in American society in preparation for the presidential elections, and in order to maintain bipartisan support, the Israeli government is advised to exhibit caution and avoid getting dragged into the internal dispute by refraining from expressing support for either position or for any particular candidate in a way that could then be utilized by either party during their election campaign.
At the same time, the Israeli government should find ways of conducting constructive dialogue with the various groups within the Democratic Party, especially the younger generation, in view of the changes in their attitude toward Israel in recent years. Netanyahu’s newly-formed government would also do well to actively deepen its collaborations with American Jewry – an important source of support and influence over the U.S. administration – while being careful not to take decisions that could alienate parts of it.
Authored by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, a senior researcher at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
If you wish to receive the weekly brief regularly, please follow the link to register.
