Who Will Rule the Gaza Strip?
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead | November, 2023
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| Photo: picryl.com/ |
The IDF’s performance is spectacular. For this very reason, the need to begin formulating an exit strategy from this war has become pronounced. Some argue it is too early to discuss it; however, in light of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent statements, the need to outline the end of the war in Gaza has grown. The clear goal set by the cabinet is to break down Hamastan. That is an appropriate goal indeed, which is particularly fitting and necessary under the current circumstances, and against the backdrop of the atrocities perpetrated by this murderous organization’s operatives under orders and by policy. Alongside it is the overarching and worthiest of causes – the release of every single hostage taken. The Prime Minister has recently suggested that Israeli presence will remain in Gaza as long as necessary, stating clearly that the Palestinian Authority would not be allowed back there, and calling it incapable and illegitimate. He avoided outlining an alternate strategy for the “day after” the war, claiming only that Israel would be retaining security control over the Gaza Strip. The implication being that management of the 2.3 million Gazans would be handed over to other parties, the identity of which is unknown. Who will rule the Gaza Strip instead of Hamas? An international force? An Arab force? NATO? All these options have not been prepared and are unlikely to be realized. Under such circumstances, Israel could end up as a long-term military presence in Gaza, a form of temporary occupying force, with the temporary possibly becoming permanent. If that will indeed be the case, Israel could turn into the party viewed by the United States and Free World as responsible for any large-scale civil distress possibly amounting to a humanitarian crisis. Put simply, a desperate population with no ruler to turn to or economic hope could become a genuine catastrophe. In the absence of a proper alternative, the State of Israel would not be able to deny responsibility for governance and military control, no matter what some people may think. Such distress could become a strategic burden that would complicate our relations with the United States, Free World, and Arab countries. It could also provide our enemies – Iran and others – with powerful ammunition to use in their anti-Israel propaganda. Troubling images shown in the international media could serve as a sharp sword pointed at Israel.
Realistically, the roadmap we should seek to follow once the process of destroying Hamas is completed is an international framework led by the United States. It is no secret that President Biden is pursuing the establishment of U.S. status in the Middle East as part of a global campaign of good versus evil. The United States is relying on the strength of the peace and stability axis it is heading. This entails two tracks – military and civil – and, together, they form a strategic axis with strong elements composed of Egypt, Saudi Araba (in the form of the strategic alliance with the United States and normalization agreement with Israel), the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, United Arab Emirates, and others. It would seem that, contrary to the content of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech, Israel should formulate an exit strategy from the war in Gaza that is fully coordinated with the United States. The latter, led by President Biden, is worthy of our assistance and cooperation, if only by way of expressing gratitude for unwaveringly standing with Israel in this country’s darkest hour. Moreover, and most importantly, the strategic axis led by the United States is vital for Israel’s security, economy, and existence. In the absence of an exit strategy, the Jewish State’s current prospects are extremely bleak.
What is required concretely? First, Israel should join forces in an effort to reinstate the Palestinian Authority’s rule in the Gaza Strip as a demilitarized territory following Hamastan’s anticipated collapse. The PA must regain civil responsibility for all areas – education, health, water and electricity infrastructure, resource recruiting, and overall municipal control. In addition, the Palestinian Authority’s reinstatement in the region it had lost back in 2007 would have to receive massive pan-Arab support and collaboration, including the comprehensive rehabilitation of Gaza, newly-freed from Hamas shackles, which had kept the Gaza Strip in extreme poverty to serve as a terror hotspot.
The IDF must not allocate enormous resources to governing 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, the burden would be too great for both it and the ISA, while the majority of its resources would need to be diverted to grappling with the various anticipated threats. It is important to underscore that the IDF would not be able to have security control without governance. It is highly likely that such a state of affairs would, in the long range, cause detriment to Israel’s operational and political freedom.
What is the expected “price” to be paid? Committing to peace prospects in coordination with the United States as part of the establishment of the strategic axis of positive forces against the Axis of Evil.
Let it be reiterated that it is imperative that Israel destroy Hamastan and go after its leaders to the end, in accordance with the model of Fatah leader killings that followed the Munich Massacre in 1972. In addition, the key challenge we face is contending with the Axis of Evil headed by Iran. Israel needs U.S.-led international collaboration if it is to defeat and weaken the Iranian axis, which is being increasingly supported by great powers such as Russia and China. The events on the northern front demonstrate it clearly. Some maintain that it would be important for Israel to initiate a preemptive attack against Hizballah in Lebanon; however, incrementalism seems more appropriate. First, Hamas should be defeated and then, in the second phase, Israel should prepare for a change of reality in Lebanon in strategic coordination with the United States. Alternatively, it should prepare for the possibility of being forced into a full-scale conflict.
We are in the midst of a complex war against Hamas that requires military success by the IDF and proper termination by the government, in the hope that the latter will make the right strategic decisions.
Authored by Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead, head of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
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