Is Civil War a Possible Scenario in Israel?

By Mr. Lior Akerman​​ | August, 2023

The modern and premodern world has known a many civil wars and coups in the past. In some cases, the wars and coups had brought about the change that remains intact to this day, such as the United States, England, Spain, and France.

Historians tends to distinguish between civil wars and coups. They describe a situation in which different populations within the same nation, each with its own military force, battle over control of their country as a civil war, while calling instances in which a civil force with no military capabilities manages to topple a country’s regime and replace it by means such as protests and revolts civil coups. The latter are typical of the premodern age, and have taken place in Italy and France, to name a few, by members of the middle class who felt they were being harmed by the ruling class.

In recent weeks, and in view of the radicalization fueled by the Israeli government’s steps toward the establishment of its governmental coup, opinions are being heard for and against civil revolt, as well as concerns voiced over an imminent civil war. In this paper, we will try to understand whether any of these scenarios is likely to take place in Israel, and what their implications would be.

As mentioned, in the relatively modern era, several events took place that may be defined as civil wars. In the English Civil War, which was fought in the 17th century, the English parliament had revolted against King Charles I. In America before the uniting of the states, the northern states had fought against the southern ones after the latter had resigned from the union, and sought to embrace a different policy. Each side had its own armed forces, and the war lasted approximately four years. The Russian Civil War took place in the early 20th century and, during it, the Communists battled against the White Army. In the 1918 Finnish Civil War too, the “red” Communists who supported the Soviet Union had fought against the nationalist “whites”. The Spanish Civil War took place prior to World War II, and was waged between the nationalist rightwing forces led by General Franco and the socialist left. The same was true for the Italian Civil War between the Democrats and Communists (supported by the Allied powers) and the Fascists and Nazis (supported by the Axis powers) in fascist Italy, while a similar war was waged at the same time in Greece.

The list is longer still, but all wars on it have shared characteristics such as a profound ideological, religious or social struggle over the country’s nature and conduct involving military forces led by the various parties to it.

At this stage, it is very hard to estimate the direction in which the current public protest in Israel will develop, or how far the government would go in its attempts to generate a governmental and regimental change in Israel without the public’s consent. History will probably be able to do it better in the future. However, if we would understand the various attributes and factors behind civil wars and coups, the obvious conclusion that they clearly exist in Israel today would be unavoidable.

Take, for instance, the profound ideological gap and wide rift between the secular pluralistic views and religious messianic ones seeking to transform Israel’s character. The disparity between how law enforcement is perceived by either side. The huge difference in understanding and grasping the essence of a democratic regime, or the role played by its institutions and authorities. All of the above undoubtedly create a concrete platform for the development of an Israeli civil war already. If the government will be utterly complacent, and refrain from calming and uniting actions, the protests are likely to exacerbate, chasms to deepen, and reactions and violence from both ends to radicalize.

It seems that a full-fledged civil war has yet to be waged due to the absence of a military force at each side’s disposal. But is that really so?

The IDF was defined since the establishment of the state as above and outside all social and political disagreement. however, something seems to have shifted in that regard too. The refusal and reactions to it, aggravating public argument over the exemption for yeshiva students, and religious Zionist debate over the duty to obey commands to evacuate illegal outposts in the West Bank all pose a threat to the IDF’s power and status as the People’s Army, dragging it into the political discourse on the citizens’ level, at least. The IDF is comprised of an extremely broad command echelon that consists of numerous Religious Zionist commanders. In the recent elections, many soldiers voted for Ben Gvir’s extreme rightwing party, and political disputes about how the IDF should operate in emergencies or other situations that fall outside of consensus in Israeli society seem to be emerging within its ranks.

Considering all known data, and based on an analysis of the current state of affairs, a worrying conclusion must be drawn whereby the State of Israel may end up in a violent civil clash that could escalate to civil war involving IDF troops acting on their own behalf.

This proposed scenario may be extreme, but not impossible under the current circumstances. The Israeli government must immediately recognize how sensitive the political and social situation evolving among citizens is, and take determined calming action, convey uniting messages, end extreme unilateral legislation, and steer toward broad dialogue and consensus on all issues pertaining to the general population of Israeli citizens.

Authored by Mr. Lior Akerman, a senior researcher at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.

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