Analyzing COVID-19 Situation in Israel and Similar European Countries

It has been a month since Israel went into lockdown in an effort to contain Coronavirus and prevent a situation in which the number of severe cases, or patients requiring mechanical ventilation, exceeds capacity of intensive care units (ICU). An analysis of morbidity data shows that the outbreak has been contained: the daily rate of increase in the number of active cases has abated significantly, from around 30% per day in the second week of March down to just around 3% in the second week of April, and around 0.2% in the third week of April. In addition, over the past two weeks we have seen an upwards trend in the number of recovered cases, along with a decrease in the number of new cases.

These trends project that within a few days the infection curve will be almost flattened, and the numbers of active and severe cases will diminish. Moreover, the data shows that the healthcare system had no difficulty supporting severe cases in ICU, as well as those in need of ventilation. At its peak, the current disease wave necessitated intensive care for 180 patients at a given time, some of which required mechanical ventilation and some sadly deceased. However, even if all ICU patients require ventilation, there will still be a margin of safety since the healthcare system already has 2,000 ventilation machines and at least 1,500 teams at the ready.